进一步加剧未来的排放升级和灌引起的潮湿热应激增加
Yi Yao1,2, Yusuke Satoh3, Nicole van Maanen4
1Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium. yi.yao@vub.be.
Nature communications
|October 22, 2025
概括
未来的灌变化将在某些场景下降取水量,但在其他场景中增加,可能会加剧热应激. 减少温室气体排放和提高灌效率对于减轻这些影响至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
背景情况:
- 灌是一个重要的历史气候强迫.
- 之前的研究没有探讨未来的灌影响,考虑到范围和效率的变化.
研究的目的:
- 调查灌对未来气候的影响,考虑灌范围和效率的变化.
- 制定与共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 保持一致的灌效率场景.
主要方法:
- 根据SSP开发灌效率场景.
- 在社区地球系统模型 (CESM) 中实现了这些场景.
- 为2015-2074年期间生成的气候预测.
主要成果:
- 预计每年灌用水的抽取在SSP1-2.6下降,但在SSP3-7.0.0下增加.
- 确定了新兴的灌热点,特别是在非洲.
- 灌可以减少干热压力,但可以放大湿热极端,增加暴露风险.
结论:
- 温室气体排放是变暖趋势的主要驱动因素.
- 限制灌扩张和提高灌效率至关重要.
- 缓解策略是必要的,以保护水资源和减少热应激暴露.
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