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通过动态降级来评估北大西洋盆地热带气旋活动的未来变化
Albenis Pérez-Alarcón1,2,3, Ricardo M Trigo2,4, Raquel Nieto1,5
1Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, 32004 Ourense, Spain.
iScience
|October 23, 2025
概括
北大西洋未来热带气旋 (TC) 活动的密度和频率可能会下降. 虽然主要风的数量可能会增加,但强度变化仍然不确定,与类似厄尔尼诺现象的趋势保持一致.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 由于气候模型的局限性,预测未来的热带气旋 (TC) 活动是复杂的.
- 了解区域TC变化对于气候适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在不同的排放场景下调查北大西洋热带气旋 (TC) 活动的预测变化.
- 通过使用高分辨率缩放来评估未来的TC密度,频率和强度.
主要方法:
- 针对SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景的偏差纠正CMIP6气候模型数据的缩小.
- 使用20公里水平分辨率的天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型.
- 对2071-2100年北大西洋盆地 (NATL) 预计的TC活动的统计分析.
主要成果:
- 在热带和中部NATL中,TC密度的统计显著减少.
- 预计平均年度TC频率的下降.
- 在高排放场景 (SSP5-8.5) 下,每年主要风 (类别3+) 的数量可能会增加,强度变化信号不显著.
结论:
- 预计未来北大西洋TC活动的频率和密度将下降.
- 虽然主要风的频率可能会增加,但强度预测是不确定的.
- 关于TC频率的发现与赤道太平洋预测的类似厄尔尼诺的情况一致.
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