在西班牙,癌死亡率的变化模式和队列特异性风险在西班牙不断变化
Lucía Cayuela1, Victoria Achaval2, Gema Flox-Benítez1
1Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa, España.
Revista espanola de enfermedades digestivas
|October 23, 2025
概括
在西班牙,门癌死亡率正在上升,特别是在男性和老年人中,这是由与人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 暴露有关的出生队列效应所驱动的. 针对性HPV疫苗接种和查对于高风险群体至关重要.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,门癌的发病率正在增加,特别是在高收入国家.
- 在西班牙,癌的长期国家死亡率数据很少.
- 本研究解决了对西班牙25年综合趋势和队列特定死亡风险分析的需求.
研究的目的:
- 分析西班牙门癌死亡率的25年趋势 (1999-2023年).
- 评估年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 并确定时间模式.
- 研究年龄,月经和出生队列对癌死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用西班牙国家统计局关于癌死亡 (1999-2023) 的数据.
- 使用2013年欧洲标准人口计算ASMR.
- 用Joinpoint回归用于趋势分析和年龄-时期-队列建模以解效应.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,ASMR在男性中显著增加 (AAPC = 2.8%),但在女性中仍然较低.
- 女性表现出双相模式:稳定率直到2009年,然后显著加速.
- 死亡率集中在50岁以上的成年人中,观察到强烈的队列效应,在1964年出生队列中达到顶峰.
结论:
- 在西班牙,门癌死亡率显著增加,主要受到老年人出生队列效应的影响.
- 1949年后出生群体的风险增加表明与增加的人类乳头瘤病毒 (HPV) 暴露的联系.
- 建议包括扩大性别中立的HPV疫苗接种和针对高风险人群的查.
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