预测密集的纵向数据中断:扩大自相关数据的联合模型.
Fridtjof Petersen1, Laura F Bringmann2, Dimitris Rizopoulos3
1Department of Psychometrics and Statistics, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen.
Psychological assessment
|October 23, 2025
概括
在生态瞬间评估 (EMA) 研究中预测参与者退出至关重要. 我们的增强联合模型 (JM) 通过考虑时间数据动态,准确预测学风险,改善临床研究结果.
科学领域:
- 临床研究方法 临床研究方法
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 心理测量 心理测量 心理测量
背景情况:
- 生态瞬间评估 (EMA) 产生了在临床研究中有价值的密集的纵向数据.
- 参与者退出EMA研究会损害统计能力,引入偏见,并对治疗结果产生负面影响.
- 现有的中断预测方法经常忽视时间数据动态和精确的中断时间.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个扩展的联合模型 (JM) 预测在EMA研究中学.
- 将自行回归组件纳入JM,以捕捉EMA数据中的时间依赖.
- 使用基线和时间变化的共变量,动态更新学风险预测.
主要方法:
- 通过添加一个自回归子模型来考虑EMA数据自相对应的扩展标准JM.
- 在各种失踪机制 (MCAR, MAR, MNAR) 下使用模拟研究验证了扩展的JM.
- 将扩展的JM应用于经验性EMA数据集,分析基线和随时间变化的脱学预测因素.
主要成果:
- 扩展的JM在不同失踪场景的模拟中显示出良好的参数恢复.
- 在预测中断中获得了很高的准确性,在经验数据分析中超过了基线仅存活模型.
- 灵敏度分析表明稳定的固定效应估计,但敏感的随机效应估计的自相关性取决于缺失假设.
结论:
- 扩展的JM有效地整合了对EMA数据的时间依赖性,以改善学预测.
- 这种方法提高了JM在临床研究中的实用性,用于预测结果和管理EMA数据.
- 准确的断学预测对于减轻纵向研究中对统计能力和治疗疗效的负面影响至关重要.
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