估计推迟墨西哥基于税收的干预措施对肥胖的影响:一项建模研究
Martha Carnalla1, Francisco Reyes-Sánchez1, Alexis Alonso-Bastida1
1Centro de Investigación en Salud Poblacional, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, México.
PLoS medicine
|October 23, 2025
概括
推迟墨西哥对含糖饮料 (SSB) 和非必需能量密集食品 (NEDF) 的税收增加将使肥胖率和死亡率恶化. 到2025年将这些税收增加一倍,可以避免超过17万例死亡,并获得数百万年没有肥胖的生活 (YLWO).
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 世界卫生组织 (WHO) 推动诸如含糖饮料 (SSB) 和非必需能量密集食品 (NEDF) 税等财政政策,以打击不断上升的肥胖率.
- 及时实施这些干预措施至关重要,因为延迟可能会降低它们的有效性,并导致无法衡量的负面健康后果.
- 墨西哥现有的SSB和NEDF税收受到潜在的政策变化的影响,需要对延迟影响进行评估.
研究的目的:
- 估计推迟一项政策的影响,该政策将墨西哥SSB和NEDF的现有税收增加一倍.
- 量化推迟这些财政干预措施对肥胖患病率,死亡率和没有肥胖生活年数 (YLWO) 的潜在后果.
主要方法:
- 从2021年到2040年,使用来自国家健康调查的数据,模拟了墨西哥成年人 (20岁以上) 的封闭队列.
- 微模拟建模基于霍尔的体重变化模型和墨西哥的能量摄入数据预测了身体质量指数 (BMI) 的变化.
- 使用国家人口委员会预测,按BMI类别分层估计了全因死亡率.
主要成果:
- 预计到2025年将SSB和NEDF税率翻一番,到2040年将肥胖率降至41.6%,而现状下则为44.5%.
- 这种2025年干预措施可以避免大约170,600人死亡,并导致超过2500万额外的YLWO.
- 将税收翻倍推迟到2035年将大大减少这些福利,避免只有38,900人死亡,并获得450万YLWO.
结论:
- 这些调查结果强调了实施世卫组织"停止肥胖加速计划"的关键重要性.
- 推迟基于证据的财政干预措施,如SSB和NEDF税,可能会增加肥胖,相关死亡率和人口痛苦的负担.
- 建议采取紧急政策行动,以最大限度地提高这些具有成本效益的肥胖预防策略对公共卫生的益处.
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