空地重建与暴力/枪支暴力犯罪之间的关联:从2007年到2023年的差异分析
Nicole Asa1, Hiwot Y Zewdie1, Ali Rowhani-Rahbar1
1Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle. Stephen J. Mooney is with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle.
在费城,将空地改造为永久性建筑与暴力犯罪的减少有关,包括严重的袭击和枪支犯罪. 这表明城市更新可能有助于预防或取代犯罪.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和犯罪学
- 公共卫生和环境研究研究.
背景情况:
- 在城市地区,空置的地块普遍存在,并且可能与犯罪率的增加有关.
- 了解城市重建对犯罪的影响对于公共卫生倡议至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查空置地块的重新开发与暴力和枪支相关犯罪的变化之间的关系.
- 评估城市更新项目在预防犯罪方面的潜力.
主要方法:
- 使用差异差异 (DID) 设计的一项准实验性研究.
- 在费城 (2007-2023) 分析了254个重新开发的空置地块和相应的警察报告的犯罪数据.
- 划分的DID估计器用于测量重建对犯罪亚型的影响.
主要成果:
- 空地重新开发与严重的袭击有显著的负面关联 (DID = -56.55犯罪/平方英里/年).
- 重建还显著减少了枪支加重攻击 (DID = -35.11犯罪/平方英里/年) 和整体枪支暴力犯罪 (DID = -27.26犯罪/平方英里/年).
- 对于分析的其他犯罪结果,没有发现显著的关联.
结论:
- 这些发现支持这样一个假设:重新开发空置地块可以帮助预防或取代暴力犯罪.
- 对建筑环境的投资,例如城市更新项目,可以作为减少暴力的战略.
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