在接受抗高血压治疗的患者中预测低血压,昏迷和骨折风险:STRATIFY模型
Constantinos Koshiaris1,2, Ariel Wang3, Lucinda Archer4,5
1Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. koshiaris.c@unic.ac.cy.
Nature communications
|October 23, 2025
概括
抗高血压药物可以增加诸如昏和低血压等风险. 新的预测模型有助于识别患有这些不良事件风险较高的患者,指导个性化监测和治疗策略.
科学领域:
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 预测建模的预测建模.
背景情况:
- 抗高血压药物与失眠,低血压和骨折等不良事件有关.
- 识别这些结果的高风险个体对于患者安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证在接受抗高血压治疗的患者中低血压,昏迷和骨折的预测模型.
- 评估与抗高血压治疗相关的危害风险.
主要方法:
- 使用临床实践研究数据链 (CPRD) 数据进行的一项大型队列研究.
- 使用广泛的患者数据 (超过550万患者) 开发和验证三种不同的预测模型.
- 纳入标准:年龄40岁以上,缩血压130-179mmHg;结果评估超过10年.
主要成果:
- 模型显示出强大的分辨能力10年风险预测 (C-统计:低血压0.824,昏迷0.819,骨折0.790).
- 预测的风险与低血压和昏迷的观察结果非常相匹配.
- 断裂模型显示了一些低预测,表明了需要改进的领域.
结论:
- 经过验证的模型可以帮助识别患有抗高血压药物不良事件风险较高的患者.
- 这些工具可以支持临床决策,可能使低风险患者放心,并指导高风险个体的监测.
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