温度与疟疾之间的关联 (1959-2019):系统审查和元分析
Yogesh Murugan1, Vaibhavkumar Shrivastav2
1SHREE M.P. SHAH Government Medical College, Pandit Nehru Marg, Jamnagar City, Gujarat, India.
Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique
|October 24, 2025
概括
最低温度显著影响疟疾传播,特别是在不同地区. 随着夜间气温的上升,气候变化的担忧加剧,需要量身定制的控制策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 疟疾传播受到温度的显著影响,影响了寄生虫的发展,蚊子的寿命和疾病传播.
- 了解温度 - 疟疾动态对于有效,气候知情的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和元分析环境温度与疟疾发病率之间的关联.
- 在不同的地理和生态环境中量化温度和疟疾的关系.
- 为制定适应气候变化的疟疾控制战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在主要数据库 (PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,Scopus,Web of Science) 进行系统的文献搜索,截至2024年9月.
- 纳入标准侧重于将温度指标与疟疾结果相关联的研究,需要至少12个月的随访.
- 随机效应元分析用于汇集相关系数,使用修改后的纽卡斯尔-太华尺度评估质量.
主要成果:
- 包括来自非洲和亚洲的11项研究 (1959-2019),显示出不同的传播生态.
- 最低温度与疟疾阳性率 (r=0.454,p<0.001) 呈现最强的正相关性,所有研究都显示出有意义的联系.
- 平均和最高温度也与疟疾发病率有积极的相关性,尽管不如最低温度那么一致. 发现了很高的异质性 (I2>99%).
结论:
- 环境温度,特别是最低温度,是不同环境中疟疾传播的重要驱动因素.
- 由于气候变化对夜间温度的影响不成比例,最低气温的影响增加引发了担忧.
- 实质性的异质性需要局部化的,基于气候的疟疾控制策略,将温度监测整合到监测和预警系统中.
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