流行病决策的建模实践,数据提供,共享和传播需求:基于欧洲调查的建模者的观点,2020年至2022年
Esther van Kleef1,2,3, Wim Van Bortel3, Elena Arsevska4
1Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
概括
先进的爆发分析为COVID-19决策提供了信息,但数据缺口和合作需求仍然存在. 未来的流行病情报需要更好的非传统数据收集和模型和代码的开放共享.
科学领域:
- 流行病情报是流行病情报.
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 疫情分析对于COVID-19决策至关重要.
- 有限的研究评估了健康紧急情况期间建模,数据使用和科学政策相互作用的演变.
研究的目的:
- 评估公共卫生危机期间建模实践和数据使用的演变.
- 识别数据缺口并评估科学政策参与,以获得未来的流行病情报.
- 为提高全球准备能力的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在欧洲流行病情报联盟中对模拟者进行了两阶段的半定量调查.
- 在早期,中期和晚期的流行病阶段对反应的描述性分析.
- 使用Overton中的政策引用来评估政策影响.
主要成果:
- COVID-19的建模从理解动态转向评估干预措施和疫苗.
- 传统的监测数据可用,但实时的非传统数据 (行为,血清学) 缺乏.
- 与决策者经常接触,但开放式代码共享是有限的 (<50%).
结论:
- 建模需求和用途在公共卫生危机期间不断发展.
- 非传统数据的持续缺口需要重新考虑收集和共享,包括来自商业来源的数据.
- 未来的准备工作必须加强数据/代码共享的协作平台,以及学术界和政策制定者的参与.
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