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西喜马拉雅地区气候驱动的变化:预计冰川撤退,雪地覆盖的变化以及未来的融化水流量
Japjeet Singh1, Vishal Singh2, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha1
1Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India.
The Science of the total environment
|October 24, 2025
概括
喜马拉雅山的变暖加剧了冰川的融化,改变了河流的流动. 这项研究模拟了上甘流域,预计到2100年冰川融化减少,因降雨模式变化而增加洪水/干旱风险.
科学领域:
- 气候学和水文学
- 冰川学和冰层科学 冰川学和冰层科学
- 环境建模和远程传感
背景情况:
- 喜马拉雅地区经历了加速变暖,导致了显著的冰川融化和改变了河流排放模式.
- 上甘盆地 (UGB) 是甘河的关键源水区域,是雪和冰川融化导致溪流流动的主要贡献者.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个结合的建模框架,将冰川厚度与UGB的水文空间过程 (SPHY) 模型结合起来.
- 预测未来的流量变化,雪地覆盖面积 (SCA) 和冰川厚度变化在不同的排放场景下 (SSP585和SSP245) 到2100年.
主要方法:
- 通过将冰川厚度数据与SPHY模型集成,开发了一个合建模框架.
- 使用混合方法对模型进行校准,使用观察到的流量,MODIS衍生的SCA和历史的冰川稀释记录.
- 应用经过验证的模型来模拟水文过程,并在两个共享社会经济路径场景下预测未来的变化.
主要成果:
- 校准模型准确地复制了水文过程,验证指标 (NSE,KGE) 表示性能良好.
- 预测显示,降雨排水对河流流量的贡献显著增加,到2100年在SSP585下从70.6%上升到84.7%.
- 预计到2100年,冰川面积将缩小40-45%,冰川和融雪对溪流流量的贡献将减少.
结论:
- 越来越多地依赖降雨冲流可能会导致季风高峰流量增加,加剧UGB的洪水风险.
- 降低冰川和融雪的贡献将增加干旱期间对干旱的脆弱性.
- 预计未来的降雪模式将发生变化,较晚开始,较早结束,在高排放场景下,冬季中旬的降雪集中在高排放场景下.
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