一种混合统计机器学习方法,用于解决超速撞车频率关系中的内源性和时间不稳定性
Sajad Asadi Ghalehni1, Amir Pooyan Afghari2
1Road and Transportation Section, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Jalal-e-Al Ahmad, Tehran, Iran.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|October 25, 2025
概括
超速在水平曲线上显著增加了碰撞风险,特别是在超过速度限制20%时. 本研究引入了一种新的混合模型,用于准确分析高速行驶对道路安全的影响.
科学领域:
- 道路安全工程 道路安全工程
- 交通行为分析 交通行为分析
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 超速是造成道路交通事故的主要原因之一,尤其是在水平曲线上.
- 由于数据错误和驾驶员行为,道路几何形状和碰撞风险之间的复杂相互关系,准确估计超速的影响具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的方法,将改进的数据收集与混合统计机器学习模型结合起来.
- 准确识别超速并估计其对水平曲线上的碰撞频率的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个混合模型,集成负二项式回归与梯度增强和沙普利值.
- 该模型包含随机参数和混合分线指标,以解决未观察到的异质性和时间不稳定性.
- 该方法在伊朗农村道路上的179公里的水平曲线上进行了测试.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型展示了使用外源变量加快速度的高预测能力.
- 沙普利的价值观和特征的重要性为变量贡献提供了直观的见解.
- 拟议的模型在统计匹配方面显著优于现有的最先进技术.
- 曲线几何和交通特征被确定为超速的强有力的预测因素.
结论:
- 超过限速20%的驾驶速度大大增加了碰撞频率.
- 乘客和重型车辆交通对事故的影响呈现时间差异.
- 开发的混合模型为分析超速对道路安全的影响提供了一种卓越的方法.
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