归因于高体重指数的心血管死亡率的全球趋势:1990-2021年分析与未来预测
Parisa Fallahtafti1, Hamidreza Soleimani2, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi3
1Tehran Heart Center, Cardiovascular Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
American journal of preventive cardiology
|October 27, 2025
概括
与高体重指数 (BMI) 相关的心血管疾病 (CVD) 死亡人数在全球范围内正在增加,特别是在低收入地区. 针对性的预防策略至关重要,尽管整体死亡率略有下降.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 是全球主要的死亡原因.
- 高体重指数 (BMI) 是心血管疾病的一个显著的,可修改的风险因素.
- 了解高BMI可归因于心血管疾病死亡率的趋势对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990年至2021年高BMI导致的CVD死亡率的全球和区域模式.
- 预测到2032年高BMI相关心血管疾病死亡率的未来趋势.
- 确定特定的心血管疾病和受高BMI影响最严重的人口群体.
主要方法:
- 利用了204个国家的2021年全球疾病负担数据.
- 分析了根据年龄标准化的死亡率 (ASMR) 和按人口统计和地区划分的人口可归因的部分.
- 采用贝叶斯的年龄-时期-队列模型来预测未来的趋势与不确定性间隔.
主要成果:
- 与高BMI相关的心血管疾病死亡人数从90万 (1990) 增加到190万 (2021),ASMR下降了6.83%.
- 高中级社会人口统计指数 (SDI) 地区显示出最高的ASMR,而低中级SDI地区则出现了最大的增长.
- 死亡率在高血压心脏病和心房动/动中增加,但在缺血性心脏病和中风中降低. 预测显示,到2032年,将有250万人死亡.
结论:
- 尽管ASMR的数量略有下降,但全球高BMI相关心血管疾病死亡的绝对数量正在上升.
- 低SDI地区受到了不成比例的影响,突出了针对性预防策略的迫切需要.
- 这项研究强调了全球肥胖和心血管健康结果之间的关键联系.
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