对于中国易受伤害的城市,从煤炭发电转型中产生的社会影响
Jiahai Yuan1, Xiaowen Yang2, Ryna Yiyun Cui3
1School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
iScience
|October 27, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 地区研究 地区研究
背景情况:
- 中国的目标是实现碳中和,需要在电力部门做出重大转变.
- 这一转型涉及加速淘汰燃煤发电厂.
- 了解对当地社区的社会经济影响对于公正的过渡至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定最容易受到煤电厂退休造成的社会经济冲击的城市.
- 在各种过渡情景下量化潜在的就业和税收损失.
- 为中国实现公正能源转型的政策制定提供信息.
主要方法:
- 城市层面对就业和税收收入变化的分析.
- 模拟不同的煤炭电力转型场景.
- 确定地理上集中的脆弱地区.
主要成果:
- 只有10%的中国城市面临严重影响,主要是在煤炭丰富的省份.
- 在所有情景中,脆弱城市经历了大量的就业和税收冲击.
- 外部因素,如其他省份的工厂关闭,对损失有很大影响.
结论:
- 针对性战略和政策支持对脆弱地区至关重要.
- 加快退休,减少利用和改造可以减轻过渡冲击.
- 解决区域差异是实现电力部门公正转型的关键.
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