对动物群体传染病引入的定量风险评估:全面审查
Ana Rita Pinheiro Marques1, Laura Gonzalez Villeta2, Robin Simons2
1Section for Animal Health and Welfare, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
Frontiers in veterinary science
|October 27, 2025
概括
量化风险评估 (QRA) 对于估计动物疾病引入风险至关重要. 这次审查发现物种覆盖范围有限,重点关注进口风险,突出了未来QRA中改善的领域,以更好地管理动物疾病.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 动物健康管理 动物健康管理
背景情况:
- 定量风险评估 (QRA) 是评估动物群体疾病引入风险的重要决策支持工具.
- 有效的QRA为关键的动物疾病管理策略和生物安全措施提供了信息.
研究的目的:
- 审查和分析2010年至2024年期间发表的同行评审的QRA,重点关注疾病引入风险.
- 确定动物疾病领域的方法趋势,共同方法和现有挑战.
主要方法:
- 2010-2024年同行评审文献的系统审查.
- 选了1933项研究,其中34项符合分析的纳入标准.
- 风险路径 (活体动物,产品,载体),动物类型,疾病,方法和协作网络的分析.
主要成果:
- 质量评估报告主要评估通过活体动物移动的风险 (20项研究),其次是动物产品 (7) 和载体 (5);水生动物没有被涵盖.
- 主要关注的是牲畜,特别是反动物 (11),猪 (6) 和家禽 (4),常见的疾病包括口病和非洲猪瘟.
- 经常使用随机方法,场景树,基于WOAH的方法和专家意见,欧洲和美国是关键的合作枢纽.
结论:
- 在QRA中存在显著的差距,包括某些动物物种,病原体和后果评估的不足.
- 目前对进口风险的关注需要扩大,以包括更全面的风险评估.
- 解决这些局限性将增强未来的QRAs的实用性,以进行强有力的动物疾病管理和政策制定.
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