孔隙压力扩散控制了2014年伊基克地震的上板余震
Carlos Peña1,2, Oliver Heidbach3,4, Sabrina Metzger3
1Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany. carlos.pena.1@uni-potsdam.de.
Nature communications
|October 28, 2025
概括
孔隙压力扩散,而不是后滑或放松,在大型巨型冲击地震后驱动上层板块的余震. 这一过程增加了地震危险,使更多断层接近故障,影响人口密的地区.
科学领域:
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 巨型地震后的上板余震对人口密地区构成重大地震危险.
- 随着时间的推移,余震的频率会降低,因此需要依赖时间的地震危险评估.
- 现有的统计模型很难解释余震活动的时间依赖性,因为静态应力转移不足.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定主要的后地震过程驱动上层板块的余震模式后2014年伊基克地震.
- 分析与不同后地震过程相关的时空压力变化.
- 为了将这些应力变化与上层板块余震的观察分布进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用4D (空间和时间) 建模方法,从地质数据中复制观察到的地震后变形.
- 分析了由个别后地震过程产生的应力变化 (后滑,粘弹性放松,孔隙压力扩散).
- 它将时空应力变化与上层板块余震分布相关联.
主要成果:
- 由共震引起的孔隙压力扩散引起的压力变化显示出最强的时空相关性与上层板块余震活动增加.
- 发现,增加孔隙压力减少了所有三个有效的主要应力大小.
- 这种有效压力的减少使得更广泛的故障,无论其方向如何,都更接近失败.
结论:
- 同地震引起的孔隙压力扩散是大规模巨型地震后上层板块余震模式的关键驱动因素.
- 该机制解释了观察到的余震断裂风格的多样性增加.
- 这些发现有助于更好地理解孔隙压力扩散在俯冲区变形中的作用,并支持基于物理的余震预测.
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