对患有恶性脑膜瘤的个体的整体存活期进行预后诺基图的开发和验证:基于人口的研究
Hongliang Ge1,2,3, Yajun Jing1,2,3, Jinye Su1
1Department of Neurosurgery, The First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, 20 Cha Zhong Lu, Taijiang District, Fuzhou, 350004, Fujian, China.
Scientific reports
|October 28, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测恶性脑膜瘤患者的生存率. 该模型确定了关键的风险因素,有助于对这种罕见的中枢神经系统瘤进行个性化治疗和预后评估.
科学领域:
- 神经瘤学神经瘤学
- 癌症流行病学癌症流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 恶性脑膜瘤是一种罕见的中枢神经系统瘤,对治疗和预后的了解有限.
- 确定预后因素对于有效的患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定恶性脑膜瘤患者生存的独立风险因素.
- 开发和验证用于临床使用的预测性预后模型 (nomogram).
主要方法:
- 利用监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库,将2360例病例分为初级和验证队列.
- 采用多变量考克斯回归来确定生存的重要预测因素.
- 使用Akaike信息标准构建和优化了一个名ogram,通过一致性指数,ROC曲线和决策曲线分析进行验证.
主要成果:
- 确定了患者的人口统计学,瘤特征,治疗时间/模式,瘤病史和诊断年份作为独立预测因素.
- 命名图表显示出强烈的区分 (一致性指数和AUC在0.7-0.8之间) 和良好的校准.
- 决策曲线分析证实了名图的显著临床实用性.
结论:
- 开发的脑膜图是评估恶性脑膜瘤患者的预后的一个实用工具.
- 这个模型可以帮助临床医生确定最佳和有效的治疗策略.
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