使用基于气候的空间风险建模预测欧洲的Diabrotica virgifera virgifera的潜在传播
Ioana Grozea1, Diana Maria Purice1, Snejana Damianov1
1Faculty of Agriculture, University of Life Sciences "King Mihai I" from Timișoara, Calea Aradului 119, 300645 Timisoara, Romania.
Insects
|October 28, 2025
概括
西方玉米根虫对欧洲玉米作物构成重大威胁,气候变化预计将扩大其种植风险. 监测和有针对性的政策对于控制这种入侵性害虫至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 侵入性物种 生态学 生态学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 西方玉米根虫 (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera) 是全球玉米 (Zea mays) 的一个主要的外来害虫.
- 由于根部和上空的器官食,它在欧洲的建立威胁到作物产量和稳定性.
- 气候变化是影响侵袭性害虫未来分布的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计2034,2054和2074年欧洲西部玉米根虫的种植风险.
- 为了确定高风险区域,并预测害虫在未来的气候情景下扩展范围.
- 为可持续玉米生产提供预测性害虫防治策略的信息.
主要方法:
- 使用QGIS进行空间模拟,结合国家中心点数据,风险标准和温度异常图 (科珀尼克斯,ECA&D,1992-2024).
- 分析整合了地理坐标,气候数据和玉米分布,以建模害虫机构.
- 风险评估考虑了害虫生物学,包括生殖潜力和耐热性.
主要成果:
- 预测南欧和东南欧的稳定高的建立风险.
- 预计到2074年,风险区将向中欧和西欧地区扩大.
- 风险区的分布与变暖趋势和玉米供应相关,显示空间聚合.
结论:
- 预防性害虫防治计划是必不可少的,需要在风险地区扩大监测.
- 需要针对尚未受到西部玉米根虫影响的地区制定有针对性的政策.
- 未来的研究应该通过现场验证和遗传监测来完善空间预测.
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