使用实证和人工智能方法进行威布尔参数估计:在伊兹米尔进行风能评估
1Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Izmir Bakırçay University, 35665 Menemen, Izmir, Turkey.
Biomimetics (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 28, 2025
概括
先进的AI算法显著改善了风能潜力的风速建模,优于传统方法. 由于效率和高收益率,Foça和Urla被确定为风能投资的首选地点.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 统计建模 统计建模
- 人工智能应用程序 人工智能应用程序
背景情况:
- 精确的风速建模对于有效的风能潜力评估至关重要.
- 对于微布尔分布参数估计的传统实证方法在复杂的风数据中存在局限性.
- 人工智能优化算法 (AIOA) 提供了提高准确性的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 在风速建模中比较传统实证方法与AIOA对韦布尔参数估计的性能.
- 根据准确的参数估计,评估风能站点的技术经济可行性.
- 为可持续风能投资提供决策支持工具.
主要方法:
- 使用实证方法 (JEM,PDM,EPFM,LAM,SEM) 和AIOA (GA,GSA,SCA,TLBA,GWA,RFA,RPA) 来估计韦布尔分布参数 (形状k,尺度c).
- 来自土耳其四个地点 (Foça,Urla,Karaburun,Çeşme) 的每小时风速数据的分析.
- 技术经济分析包括容量因素,单位能源成本和回报期.
主要成果:
- AIOA,特别是GA,GSA,SCA,TLBA和GWA,表现出优于实证方法的性能,实现了低RMSE (0.0071) 和高R2 (0.9755).
- 在实证方法中,SEM和LAM显示出具有竞争力的结果;PDM和EPFM显示出更高的错误.
- 福萨和乌尔拉被确定为最佳投资地点,而切什梅被认为是不可行的.
结论:
- 在风能评估中,AIOA为韦布尔参数估计提供了更准确的框架.
- 该研究提供了一个强大的决策支持工具,用于选择最佳的风能投资地点.
- 精确的建模显著影响风能项目的技术经济可行性.
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