机器学习方法与传统的考克斯回归对比,用于使用现实数据预测癌症生存率:系统文献综述和元分析
Yinan Huang1, Shadi Bazzazzadehgan2, Jieni Li3
1Department of Pharmacy Administration, University of Mississippi School of Pharmacy, University, MS, USA. yhuang9@olemiss.edu.
BMC medical research methodology
|October 29, 2025
概括
机器学习 (ML) 模型的性能与传统的Cox比例危险 (CPH) 模型的性能相似,用于预测癌症生存结果. 这一系统性审查表明,ML具有潜力,但需要改善瘤学应用的报告透明度.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确的癌症生存预测对于有针对性的干预措施至关重要.
- 传统的考克斯比例危险 (CPH) 模型在预测准确性方面存在局限性.
- 机器学习 (ML) 提供了在瘤学中更好地预测时间到事件结果的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 在观察性研究中系统地审查ML模型的癌症生存结果.
- 将ML模型与CPH模型的性能进行比较.
- 评估ML在改善癌症护理质量的有用性.
主要方法:
- 在PubMed,MEDLINE和Embase系统搜索相关研究.
- 包括使用AUC或C指数比较ML与CPH模型的研究.
- 使用随机效应模型组合性能指标的元分析.
- 评估研究质量和敏感性分析.
主要成果:
- 审查了21项研究,7项研究被纳入了元分析.
- 使用多种ML模型,包括随机生存森林,梯度增强和深度学习.
- ML模型的表现与CPH模型的表现相当 (SMD=0.01,95% CI: -0.01到0.03).
结论:
- ML模型的预测性能与癌症存活率的CPH模型相似.
- 调查结果强调了ML在瘤学中的潜力,但强调了需要加强报告透明度的必要性.
- 未来的研究应该专注于特定的ML模型和癌症类型.
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