脊髓损伤流行病学和原因:2050年预测的全球分析
Minyoung Kim1, Woonyoung Jeong1, Suho Jang2
1Department of MetaBioBealth, School of Medicine, Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon 16419, Republic of Korea.
Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland)
|October 29, 2025
概括
脊髓损伤 (SCI) 的全球负担正在上升,在2021年有1450万例. 预测显示,到2050年,这一数字将超过1450万,强调需要进行干预.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 神经学 神经学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 由于人口老龄化和区域差异,全球脊髓损伤 (SCI) 负担正在增加.
- 迫切需要更新的流行病学数据,以应对SCI日益增长的影响.
- 该研究解决了全面的SCI负担量化和未来预测的需求.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,量化脊髓损伤 (SCI) 的全球,区域和国家负担.
- 预测到2050年SCI的流行情况.
- 为了确定SCI患病率的趋势和人口结构模式.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究的数据.
- 估计年龄,性别和特定位置的患病率和残疾人生活年数 (YLDs).
- 采用社会人口学建模,贝叶斯元回归 (DisMod-MR 2.1) 和达斯古普塔分解来进行预测.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,全球约有1450万个人患有SCI (7.30M在部水平,7.22M在部以下).
- 自1990年以来,年龄标准化流行率略有下降,但绝对负担显著增加,特别是在东亚和LMICs.
- 在50-64岁的男性中观察到的患病率最高;全球SCI病例预计到2050年将超过1450万.
结论:
- 在全球范围内,脊髓损伤 (SCI) 的绝对负担正在大幅增加.
- 有针对性的预防策略和加强康复服务至关重要.
- 公平获得医疗保健对于减轻长期残疾和改善SCI患者生活质量至关重要.
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