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在气候变化下,在中国模拟Daphniphyllum macropodum的息地适宜性和范围转移,使用优化的MaxEnt模型
Yangzhou Xiang1, Suhang Li1, Qiong Yang1
1School of Geography and Resources, Guizhou Education University, Guiyang 550018, China.
Biology
|October 29, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着生物多样性. 这项研究预测关键物种D. macropodum的息地损失显著,突出了台湾和中国的保护工作的关键避难所.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁.
- 评估关键物种的分布变化对于有效的保护计划至关重要.
- D. macropodum 是中国亚热带常青宽叶森林中一个重要的树种.
研究的目的:
- 评估D. macropodum在各种气候变化情景下的当前和未来息地适宜性.
- 确定影响其分布的关键环境因素.
- 确定关键的气候避难所,以优先考虑保护.
主要方法:
- 利用了354个D. macropodum的发生记录和环境变量.
- 采用一个参数优化的MaxEnt模型 (使用ENMeval进行校准) 进行分布建模.
- 20世纪90年代,根据三个共同社会经济路径 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585) 预计的息地变化.
主要成果:
- 湿度和温度的季节性是D. macropodum分布的主要驱动因素.
- 高排放场景 (SSP585) 预计到20世纪90年代,适合息地将减少40.1%,高适合面积将减少80%以上.
- 息地中心体在不同场景中显示出不同的转移 (西南与东南),表明了碎片化.
结论:
- 在台湾省和江/福建省确定了关键的气候避难区,建议优先保护.
- 这些发现为保护D. macropodum和类似的亚热带常青物种提供了基础.
- 需要进行进一步的研究,以评估这些发现在不同植物功能类型中的通用性.
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