在中国Puccinellia tenuiflora的潜在分布和应对气候变化的反应,使用优化的MaxEnt模型进行预测
Hao Yang1, Xiaoting Wei1,2, Manyin Zhang1
1Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China.
Biology
|October 29, 2025
概括
全球气候变化和人类活动正在缩小中国Puccinellia tenuiflora适合的息地. 保护工作至关重要,因为它的分布向东北转移.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化和日益增长的人类压力显著影响生物多样性和生态系统功能.
- 精确的物种分布建模对于生态保护和恢复工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测中国Puccinellia tenuiflora目前和未来的潜在适合息地.
- 在各种气候变化情景下确定影响其分布的关键环境因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了169个Puccinellia tenuiflora的发生记录和10个环境变量.
- 应用了一个参数优化的MaxEnt模型来模拟物种分布.
- 根据2050年代和2090年代的SSP126,SSP370和SSP585情景,预计未来的息地.
主要成果:
- 人类足迹指数 (43.3%) 和温度季节性 (26.9%) 是主要因素.
- 目前适合息地的面积为258.26×10^4平方公里,主要位于中国北部.
- 在所有情景下,预计息地收缩,在SSP585下最严重 (56.2%的减少) 到2090年代.
- 分布中心预计将向东北转移145.36公里.
结论:
- 普奇尼莉亚 (Puccinellia tenuiflora) 的分布敏感于气候变化和人类活动.
- 显著的息地收缩和空间迁移表明潜在的脆弱性.
- 这些发现为保护和适应性管理策略提供了科学基础.
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