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建模优化治疗模式对登革热传播动态的影响

Waheed Ahmad¹, Muhammad Sultan Aslam², Muhammad Rafiq³

¹Department of Mathematics, Government College University, Lahore 54000, Pakistan.

Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)

|October 29, 2025

概括

这项研究使用数学分析和数值模拟来模拟登革热传播动态. 它表明,增强的治疗策略可以显著减少登革热的传播和成本,并提供实际的管理指南.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
数学生物学数学生物学
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

登革热是全球主要的健康威胁,特别是在热带/亚热带地区,导致反复爆发.
目前的控制措施不足,需要先进的建模来有效管理疾病.

研究的目的:

开发和分析登革热传播的非线性动态模型.
研究治疗干预措施对疾病动态的影响.
确定登革热管理的最佳控制策略.

主要方法:

非线性动态建模和平衡状态的数学分析.
使用非标准有限差异 (NSFD) 方法进行的数值模拟,与欧勒和RK4.4相比.
灵敏度分析和最佳控制问题的制定.

主要成果:

该模型展示了独特的,稳定的平衡状态,并证实了NSFD数值方法的有效性.
增加治疗力度,特别是时间依赖的策略,显著加速登革热的根除.
敏感性分析确定了影响疾病传播的关键参数.

结论:

数学建模为登革热传播动态提供了关键的见解.
优化治疗干预措施有效控制登革热的传播,减少经济负担.
该研究为基于证据的登革热管理策略提供了实际指导方针.

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