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鱼类中的含量和趋势 (2011-2021):贝叶斯的方法与多组高斯过程和等级归因

Carolina Blanco-Calvo¹, Gabriel Riutort-Mayol², Silvia Marín³

¹Preventive Medicine, Hospital Universitario Doctor Peset, Valencia, Spain.

Environmental research

|October 29, 2025

概括

瓦伦西亚社区消费的鱼类中的含量从2011年至2016年普遍下降. 剑鱼的度最高,一些样本超过了欧洲限制.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
食品安全食品安全
毒理学毒理学毒理学

背景情况:

(Hg) 是一种有毒的金属,鱼类消费是人类的主要暴露途径.
评估消费鱼类中的含量对于公共健康至关重要.
瓦伦西亚共同体 (西班牙) 是这项分析的关键地区.

研究的目的:

为了确定瓦伦西亚社区消费的鱼类中的 (Hg) 度.
从2011年到2021年,分析这些鱼类中水平的时间趋势.
根据当地鱼类消费建议提供信息.

主要方法:

从食品安全监测计划 (2011-2021) 中对鱼肉中含量的回顾性分析.
对总Hg (THg) 和甲基 (MeHg) 的描述性分析和时间趋势推断.
应用高斯过程 (GPs) 与一个新的多组共变函数,以改善不平衡数据中的趋势推理.

主要成果:

剑鱼的Hg度最高 (THg中位数:0.76 mg/kg),超过欧洲限量的比例为30%,其次是新鲜和头金枪鱼.
剑鱼的Hg水平从2011-2016年下降,然后增加;新鲜和头金枪鱼在研究期间的前半年显示下降趋势.
期间下半年的有限数据 (除了剑鱼外) 需要谨慎的解释.

结论:

大多数鱼类群体在2011年至2016年之间表现出Hg下降趋势.
研究结果提供了有关商业鱼类中的含量有价值的数据.
结果可以指导瓦伦西亚社区的当地鱼类消费建议.

关键词:

贝叶斯的归算是贝叶斯的归算.鱼类鱼类鱼类鱼类鱼类斯过程是高斯过程.水星水星水星水星水星多层次建模多层次建模趋势趋势趋势

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