21世纪药物的动态临床试验成功率
Ying Zhou1, Yintao Zhang1, Hangwei Xu1
1College of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Advanced Drug Delivery and Release Systems, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
Nature communications
|October 30, 2025
概括
临床试验成功率 (ClinSR) 波动,在本世纪初开始下降,然后停滞并上升. 本研究介绍了一个动态的ClinSR计算和平台,用于更好的制药决策.
科学领域:
- 药物开发 药物开发
- 临床试验 临床试验
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在临床试验中评估药物成功率对于药物开发至关重要.
- 了解临床试验成功的时间趋势对于战略规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为计算临床试验成功率 (ClinSR) 提出一个动态策略.
- 分析随着时间的推移以及不同类型的药物和疾病的ClinSR趋势.
- 开发一个平台,持续监测ClinSR.
主要方法:
- 开发一个动态策略来计算ClinSR.
- 对历史临床试验数据的分析.
- 创建一个用于数据可视化的ClinSR.org平台.
主要成果:
- ClinSR在21世纪初下降,平稳,最近开始增加.
- 重用药物显示了较低的ClinSR比近年来所有药物.
- 抗COVID-19药物表现出极低的ClinSR.
- 在疾病,发育策略和药物模式之间存在ClinSR的显著差异.
结论:
- 拟议的动态战略允许准确,及时和持续评估ClinSR.
- ClinSR.org平台为药物开发成功率提供了有价值的见解.
- 这项工作支持知情制药和经济决策.
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