预计到2050年,全球建筑行业的碳足迹将翻一番
Chaohui Li1,2,3, Prajal Pradhan2,4, Guoqian Chen1,5
1Laboratory of Systems Ecology and Sustainability Science, Peking University, Beijing, China.
概括
全球建筑碳足迹在30年内翻了一番,到2050年将再次翻一番. 这种轨迹危及气候目标,需要转向可持续建筑材料.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 可持续建筑 可持续建筑
背景情况:
- 建筑环境对全球温室气体排放作出了重大贡献.
- 实现"巴黎协定"的目标 (将全球变暖限制在1.5°C或2°C) 需要大幅减少排放.
- 建筑行业的碳足迹对气候目标构成重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 量化全球建筑环境建筑的历史和预测碳排放量.
- 评估建筑行业对1.5°C和2°C升温情景的剩余碳预算的影响.
- 倡导建筑领域的材料创新,以实现气候目标.
主要方法:
- 在过去三十年中,建筑碳成本的分析.
- 建筑碳足迹的预测到2050年在一个商业常规场景下.
- 来自各种建筑材料和活动的排放贡献量化.
主要成果:
- 全球建筑碳足迹在过去30年里翻了一番.
- 来自水泥,和金属的排放量占2022年该行业碳排放量的50%以上.
- 按照目前的趋势,建筑业的碳足迹将在20年内超过1.5°C和2°C升温的年度预算,并在2050年之前耗尽1.5°C的预算.
结论:
- 建筑行业目前的碳排放轨迹与全球气候目标不相容.
- 重要的材料革命,包括采用生物基材料,对于可持续建筑是必不可少的.
- 利用可持续材料的规模经济可以推动建筑环境的变革性未来.
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