在KwaZulu-Natal地区对艾滋病毒和其他性传播疾病的综合性映射:使用潜在构造的贝叶斯空间时间建模方法
Exaverio Chireshe1, Retius Chifurira1, Jesca Mercy Batidzirai2
1Statistics, School of Agriculture and Science, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Westville Campus, Durban, South Africa.
Frontiers in public health
|October 30, 2025
概括
在南非,人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 和性传播感染 (STIs) 的综合症显示出持久的热点. 干预措施必须针对推动这些共同流行病的社会经济和行为因素.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 艾滋病毒和性传播疾病的综合症在撒哈拉以南非洲带来了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解这些共感染的空间和时间模式对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化和绘制南非克瓦祖鲁-纳塔尔省艾滋病毒和其他性传播疾病的综合性负担.
- 确定与综合症负担相关的主要人口,行为和社会经济因素.
- 评估综合性热点和冷点的空间和时间稳定性.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯的时空框架利用潜变量建模.
- 确认因素分析,从艾滋病毒和性传播疾病指标创建综合症评分.
- 综合嵌套拉普拉斯近似 (INLA) 与SPDE用于空间效应,随机步行用于时间效应.
- 地方空间自相关统计 (Local Moran's I,Getis-Ord Gi*) 用于识别集群.
主要成果:
- 综合症负担在年轻人,女性,受教育程度不完全的人,从事危险性行为的人以及面临粮食不安全的人群中更高.
- 获得医疗保健和治疗抑郁症与综合症负担有积极联系,可能是由于检测增加.
- 确定了一致的空间热点和冷点,热点模式在2014年和2015年显示时间稳定性.
结论:
- 贝叶斯潜变量和时空建模有效地将同时发生的健康状况集成到一个空间框架中.
- 调查结果为在资源有限的环境中解决综合性驱动因素的地理目标,多部门干预提供了可行的证据.
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