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在过渡性灾害中传播风险信息 - 一种系统动态方法
Zihan Li1, Yuhang Wang2, Yi Lu3
1School of Economics & Trade, Hunan University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
概括
有效的风险沟通对于过渡性灾害至关重要. 及时采取行动,增加信息,以及媒体/基础设施的整合,大大减少了灾难的影响和伤亡人数.
科学领域:
- 灾害管理和风险沟通
- 系统动力学建模系统动力学建模
- 公共卫生和公共安全.
背景情况:
- 由于风险信息的传播,过渡性灾害带来了重大威胁.
- 有效的风险沟通策略对于减轻不利影响和确保公共安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用系统动态模型模拟过渡性灾害期间的风险信息流.
- 分析信息传播和人口反应对疏散和灾难结果的影响.
- 确定影响不同群体和地区疏散有效性和灾害暴露的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 调整SEIR模型以创建未知联系者-传播者-理性 (UCSR) 模型.
- 系统动态方法模拟风险信息流,媒体影响和风险感知.
- 检查对风险信息的响应中区域间和集团间的差异.
主要成果:
- 不同的人口群体及时采取的行动显著减少了对风险信息的脆弱性.
- 增加信息推送频率,风险意识和推广理性行为加速疏散并增加理性个体.
- 联合媒体传播和疏散基础设施提供了最有效的风险减轻.
结论:
- 针对不同地区和不同的人口群体,量身定制的风险沟通策略和灾害准备计划是必不可少的.
- 优化信息流和鼓励主动行为可以大大减少伤亡和经济损失.
- 涉及媒体和基础设施的综合方法是减轻过渡性灾害影响的关键.
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