仿制药进入后原始药物的销售侵蚀:定量分析和预测建模
Soon Kyu Jung1,2, Sang-Won Lee3
1School of Pharmacy, Sungkyunkwan University, 2066, Seobu-ro, Jangan-gu, Suwon, Gyeonggi-do, 16419, Republic of Korea.
Therapeutic innovation & regulatory science
|October 30, 2025
概括
通用药物进入市场导致原始者销售大幅度侵蚀,到第五年下降至31.7%. 销售保留是可以预测的,但根据药物和市场因素而异,有助于制药生命周期管理.
科学领域:
- 制药经济学 制药经济学
- 市场分析市场分析
- 药物生命周期管理 药物生命周期管理
背景情况:
- 通用药物进入市场显著影响原始制药销售.
- 量化销售侵蚀对于战略规划和生命周期管理至关重要.
- 本研究检查了美国批准药物的 (2010-2019) 仿制药进入后销售保留率.
研究的目的:
- 量化仿制药进入市场后原始销售侵蚀的程度和轨迹.
- 开发用于特定年份销售保留的预测模型.
- 确定影响销售侵蚀的关键产品和市场级特征.
主要方法:
- 使用FDA批准和评估Pharma销售数据对140种原始药物的分析.
- 用三参数指数衰变函数建模五年保留模式.
- 使用多项式回归与市场指标和时间条件进行预测.
主要成果:
- 原始人销售保留从73.1% (第一年) 下降到31.7% (第五年) 后的通用条目.
- 指数式衰变模型显示强匹配 (RMSE=0.006),捕捉了最初的下降和稳定.
- 爆款药物和多种仿制药的市场经历了更快的侵蚀.
结论:
- 通用药物进入后的销售下降遵循了一个可预测的,但异质的轨迹.
- 产品和市场因素在很大程度上影响了销售侵蚀模式.
- 组合指数衰减和回归模型为预测销售保留提供了一个强大的框架.
相关概念视频
Pharmacokinetic Models: Overview
1.8K
Pharmacokinetic models utilize mathematical analysis to achieve a detailed quantitative understanding of a drug's life cycle within the body. They are instrumental in simulating a drug's pharmacokinetic parameters, predicting drug concentrations over time, optimizing dosage regimens, linking concentrations with pharmacologic activity, and estimating potential toxicity.
There are three primary types of models: empirical, compartment, and physiological. Empirical models, with minimal...
There are three primary types of models: empirical, compartment, and physiological. Empirical models, with minimal...
1.8K
Pharmaceutical Alternatives: Excipients and Impurities-Related Therapeutic Nonequivalence
164
Pharmaceutical products contain more than just the active drug; they also contain various excipients such as binders, solubilizers, stabilizers, preservatives, and other elements. In some cases, impurities or contaminants might be present. Traditionally, quality control in pharmaceuticals has primarily focused on the analysis of the active drug, often overlooking the impact of these additional components. The recent issue with heparin contamination by over-sulfated chondroitin sulfate, a...
164
Pharmaceutical Alternatives: Polymorphic Form-Related and Particle Size-Related Therapeutic Nonequivalence
142
Changes in polymorphic forms can significantly influence the bioavailability of poorly soluble drugs. Although the FDA defines pharmaceutical equivalence based on having the same active ingredient, dosage form, and route of administration, it does not automatically disqualify products with different polymorphic forms. This means two products with different polymorphs can still be deemed pharmaceutically equivalent. However, polymorphic differences can affect properties like wettability,...
142
Bioequivalence of Drugs: Drugs with Multiple Indications
145
The concept of therapeutic equivalence (TE) in drugs with multiple indications is complex. A generic drug may be therapeutically equivalent to a brand-name product for one specific indication, but this doesn't necessarily mean it's equivalent for all other indications. Evidence of TE in one patient group and bioequivalence shown in healthy volunteers can support—but not confirm—TE for other indications. However, definitive proof requires individual clinical studies for each...
145
Pharmaceutical Alternatives: Stability-Related Therapeutic Nonequivalence
172
Generic intravenous (IV) drugs are considered bioequivalent to their branded counterparts due to their 100% bioavailability upon administration. However, variations in stability among different drug products can significantly influence their therapeutic performance, even if they are pharmaceutically equivalent.Cefuroxime, a prophylactic antimicrobial, is often used as a single-dose IV injection for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. A 3 g dose typically provides...
172
Drug Products: Biologics, Biosimilars and Interchangeables
223
Body:Biologics, derived from living sources such as humans, animals, or microorganisms, represent a significant category of pharmaceuticals. These complex molecules, developed through advanced biotechnological methods or purified from natural sources, include essential medical treatments like insulin and growth hormones. The complexity of biologics arises from their large molecular structures and the intricate processes required for their production, making them distinct from conventional...
223


