一个新的框架来建模交通冲突间隔时间,基于相关的随机参数持续时间模型,具有平均值和差异异的异质性
Gen Li1, Shengxu Ji1, Wanrong Cheng1
1College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|October 30, 2025
概括
了解交通冲突间隔时间对于高速公路安全至关重要. 这项研究引入了一个新的模型来分析影响冲突时间的因素,改善交通流动的稳定性和降低风险.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 交通安全分析 交通安全分析
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 交通冲突间隔时间显著影响高速公路交通流动的稳定性和安全性.
- 不确定性和二次冲突风险随着冲突间隔的缩短而增加.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉影响冲突时间的因素的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查各种因素对交通冲突间隔时间的影响.
- 提出和验证一种新的统计模型来分析这些影响.
- 揭示高速公路影响因素之间的相关性和异质性.
主要方法:
- 相关随机参数加速失效时间 (AFT) 模型与平均值和方差异性 (CRPHMV) 的开发.
- 使用高D轨迹数据用于模型应用和验证.
- 对CRPHMV AFT模型与其他先进的安装性能模型进行比较分析.
主要成果:
- 该CRPHMV AFT模型显示出卓越的装配性能.
- 平均速度,加速度差异,交通流量和高风险冲突都表现出异质效应.
- 特定的异质性 (例如,中等风险冲突与加速变异) 缩短了冲突间隔时间,而其他 (例如,速度差异与加速变异) 增加了它.
- 未观察到的异质性和特定指标之间的相互作用效应显著影响了冲突间隔时间.
结论:
- 拟议的CRPHMV AFT模型有效地分析了影响交通冲突间隔时间的因素.
- 调查结果提供了关于不同变量及其相互作用如何影响高速公路安全的见解.
- 结果可以为交通管理策略提供信息,以提高道路安全并优化交通控制.
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