使用日本大型区域保险索赔数据库开发和验证2型糖尿病预测工具
Tatsunori Satoh1,2,3, Eiji Nakatani4,5,6, Hiroyuki Ariyasu7
1Division of Endocrinology, Metabolism and Nephrology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Tokyo, Japan.
Scientific reports
|October 31, 2025
概括
使用日本的健康数据,包括老年人,开发了2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 的新预测模型. 这种模型有助于在T2DM预防的早期风险分层.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 全球糖尿病患病率不断上升,需要改进早期检测策略.
- 现有的2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 预测模型往往缺乏通用性,特别是在老年人群中.
- 在糖尿病研究中,老年人往往代表性不足.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个T2DM发病的预测模型在一个大型的日本队列.
- 包括老年参与者,解决当前预测建模中的差距.
- 为了广泛应用,利用例行收集的健康检查数据.
主要方法:
- 对静岡科科霍数据库 (超过250万个体) 的分析.
- 包括463,248名40岁以上的成年人接受健康检查,分为导出和验证集.
- 考克斯比例危险模型用于识别预测因素 (人口统计,临床,生活方式因素).
主要成果:
- 16.9% (衍生) 和17.0% (验证) 在中位数5.17年的随访期间发展了T2DM.
- 关键预测因素包括年龄,性别,BMI,血压,脂质,肝/功能和生活方式.
- 该模型在验证集中显示了适度的预测性能,Harrell的c指数为0.656.
结论:
- 一个新的T2DM预测模型成功地开发并使用日本健康检查数据进行验证.
- 该模型结合了多种因素,并显示了在广泛的人群中风险分层的潜力,包括老年人.
- 这种工具可以指导针对2型糖尿病的有针对性的预防干预措施.
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