系统性炎症反应指数对高胆固醇血症患者动脉样硬化心血管疾病风险的预测值:一项机器学习研究,采用双队列验证
Yu Chen1,2, Weikang Huang2, Shihan Zhao2
1Department of Pharmacy, Shanghai Children's Medical Center Guizhou Hospital, Shanghai Jiao tong University School of Medicine, Guiyang, China.
Lipids in health and disease
|October 31, 2025
概括
系统性炎症反应指数 (SIRI) 是高胆固醇血症患者动脉样硬化心血管疾病 (ASCVD) 的重要预测指标. 结合SIRI的可解释机器学习模型有助于预测ASCVD风险,改善早期识别.
科学领域:
- 心血管医学 心血管医学
- 生物标志物发现发现
- 医疗保健中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 尽管接受治疗,但高胆固醇血症患者的持续心血管风险突出显示了炎症在动脉样硬化心血管疾病 (ASCVD) 中的作用.
- 系统性炎症反应指数 (SIRI),由中性粒细胞,单细胞和淋巴细胞计数组成的复合生物标志物,被探索与ASCVD的关联.
研究的目的:
- 在高胆固醇血症患者中评估SIRI和ASCVD之间的关系.
- 开发一种可解释的机器学习 (ML) 模型,用于预测该人群中的ASCVD风险.
主要方法:
- 利用国家健康和营养检查调查数据 (2001-2018) 对6645名高胆固醇血症患者和外部验证队列的数据.
- 使用ML分析SIRI对ASCVD的影响,建立了四种风险预测模型.
- 使用接收器操作特征曲线下的面积 (AUC) 评估模型性能,并使用沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 解释.
主要成果:
- 在内部和外部队列中,SIRI显示出与ASCVD的一致关联.
- 结合SIRI的XGBoost模型实现了0.8001 (内部) 和0.7030 (外部) 的AUC.
- SHAP分析发现,SIRI升高是关键预测因素,增强了模型的区分能力.
结论:
- 高SIRI水平是高胆固醇血症患者ASCVD的独立风险因素.
- 结合SIRI用于ASCVD预测的可解释的ML模型显示了可接受的性能和适度的通用性.
- 该模型可以作为风险分层工具,用于早期识别高风险个体.
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