全球自闭症数据中的红旗:对流行模式和官方援助依赖性的法医分析
1College of Education and Humanities, Nanchang Institute of Technology, Nanchang, China.
Frontiers in psychiatry
|October 31, 2025
概括
统计分析表明潜在的自闭症过度诊断,特别是在DSM-5变化后的低收入国家. 获得的官方援助与自闭症病例的增加有关,需要进一步调查患病率趋势.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 全球自闭症发病率被广泛研究.
- 需要仔细审查报告的异常和过度诊断问题的数据.
- 诊断标准的变化可能会影响流行趋势.
研究的目的:
- 调查报告的自闭症患病率中的统计不规则.
- 评估诊断标准变化 (如DSM-5) 对自闭症趋势的影响.
- 检查官方援助与自闭症发病率之间的关系,特别是在不同的经济环境中.
主要方法:
- 使用本福德定律和平均绝对偏差进行法医分析.
- 分段分析比较低收入和高收入国家后的DSM-5.
- 仪表变量和滞后分析以解决内源性问题.
- 分析基于1990-2019年间来自206个国家的数据.
主要成果:
- 发现了显著的统计不规则和潜在的过度诊断,特别是在DSM-5后.
- 诊断变化与上升趋势之间的关系在低收入国家加剧.
- 收到的官方援助与不同性别的自闭症病例增加有关,在收入较低和治理较弱的国家更为明显.
- 在解决内源性后,结果仍然很强.
结论:
- 虽然统计方法表明潜在的过度诊断模式,但区分真正的增加和诊断通货膨胀仍然具有挑战性.
- 这些发现强调了政府需要对急剧增加的患病率保持警.
- 鼓励进行进一步的研究,以探索报告的自闭症患病率的复杂性.
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