延迟水源病原体模型中的丰富动态与过度暴露
Jinhu Xu1, Yanni Xiao1, Xiaodan Sun1
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, PR China.
Mathematical biosciences
|October 31, 2025
概括
这项研究的模型延迟了水传播病原体的传播,揭示了过度暴露和时间延迟使疾病控制复杂化. 即使基本繁殖数 (R0) 低于1,疾病也可能由于向后分叉而持续存在.
科学领域:
- 数学流行病学数学流行病学
- 传染病建模传染病模型
- 公共卫生动态 公共卫生动态
背景情况:
- 通过水传播的病原体对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 了解疾病传播动态对于有效的控制策略至关重要.
- 以前的模型往往简化了诸如过度暴露和时间延迟等复杂因素.
研究的目的:
- 制定和分析一个延迟的水传播病原体模型,包括过度暴露.
- 为了研究值动态和分叉现象.
- 评估过度暴露和时间延迟对疾病传播和稳定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 制定一种延迟微分方程模型,用于水传播病原体的传播.
- 使用基本复制数 (R0) 分析值动态.
- 理论和数值研究的倒向和霍夫分叉.
- 检查时间延迟作为分叉参数的影响.
主要成果:
- 该模型表现出向后分叉,即使在R0 < 1时,也允许疾病持续存在.
- 过度暴露会导致复杂的动态,包括稳定开关和多个极限周期.
- 时间延迟触发了本地和全球的Hopf分叉,导致稳定性开关和多个周期性解决方案.
结论:
- 过度暴露和时间延迟显著复杂化了水传播病原体的动态.
- 这些因素有助于复杂的行为,如特有性持久性和多个稳定状态.
- 有效的疾病控制策略必须考虑过度暴露和时间延迟来管理复杂的传播模式.
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