孟加拉国东北部和印度跨境洪水地区的降水建模使用双元启发优化NMF神经网络进行降水建模
Shuvendu Pal Shuvo1, Shirshendu Pal Shibazee2, Chaitee Das3
1Department of Civil Engineering , Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET) , Khulna, Bangladesh. shuvenduce@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|November 1, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的两步混合优化方法,用于人工神经网络 (ANN),以提高降雨预报的准确性. 新方法有效地处理复杂的降雨数据,优于现有的单步和元启发式优化技术.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 雨量建模面临着非线性,杂,短时间数据的挑战.
- 传统的人工神经网络 (ANN) 和单步优化与复杂的降雨模式作斗争.
- 现有的特征选择技术往往不足以预测降雨量.
研究的目的:
- 为了解决基于ANN的降雨模型在短期预测中的局限性.
- 为ANN模型引入和评估一种新的两步混合优化方法.
- 将拟议方法的性能与单步优化和先进的元启发算法进行比较.
主要方法:
- 使用非负矩阵因子 (NMF) 来建模复杂的降雨模式.
- 用于计算NMF组件的最佳差分方法.
- 开发了一种两步混合优化策略,将各种元启发算法 (哈里斯·霍克斯优化,Egret Swarm优化算法,河马优化,遗传算法,粒子群优化) 集成用于ANN模型优化.
主要成果:
- 两步混合优化方法显著提高了在降雨预测中的ANN模型精度.
- 平均平方误差 (MSE) 的减少在不同研究地点 (锡尔赫特,奇塔贡,梅加拉亚,阿萨姆) 从1.00%到97.46%不等.
- 与单步优化和最近引入的元启发算法相比,提出的方法显示出更高的性能.
结论:
- 两步混合优化方法在提高降雨预测准确性方面非常有效.
- 该方法为处理复杂,非线性降雨数据的现有技术提供了优质的替代方案.
- 灵敏度分析显示,隐藏的神经元的数量显著影响优化器性能和数据特征.
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