整合事件信息和多维关系,以改善财务时间序列预测
Xinke Du1, Jinfei Cao2, Xiyuan Jiang3
1School of Marketing and International Business, Shanghai Normal University Tianhua College, Shanghai, 201815, China.
Scientific reports
|November 1, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了用于金融时间序列预测的双流阿尔法因子融合网络 (DAFF-Net). 通过整合事件信息和多维资产关系,DAFF-Net提高了准确性,优于传统模型.
科学领域:
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 金融计量经济学 金融计量经济学
背景情况:
- 由于市场叙述和资产间的依赖关系,金融时间序列预测是复杂的.
- 传统模型难以区分价格模式,这些价格模式源于各种潜在原因.
- 这限制了现实世界金融应用中的预测准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个先进的深度学习框架,用于增强财务时间序列预测.
- 解决现有模型在捕捉市场叙述和复杂资产关系方面的局限性.
- 提出双流阿尔法因子融合网络 (DAFF-Net).
主要方法:
- DAFF-Net集成事件驱动的时间模式提取使用一个事件意识路由器.
- 它将时间序列数据与来自新闻和公告的上下文事件信息融合在一起.
- 一个多维关系意识通道软集群模块捕获跨资产依赖.
主要成果:
- 在八个基线模型中,DAFF-Net显示出显著的性能改善.
- 该框架实现了7.4%-15.2%更好的平均平方误差 (MSE) 和7.0%-21.4%的增强[公式:参见文本]指标.
- 在长期财务预测任务中,DAFF-Net表现特别强.
结论:
- 整合事件信息和多维关系对于财务预测是有效的.
- DAFF-Net为定量投资和风险管理提供了一个新的技术范式.
- 该研究验证了亚马逊库存数据和跨部门库存的方法.
相关概念视频
Econometric Views (EViews)
540
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
540
Growth Models with Integration: Problem Solving
9
In population modeling, integration provides a systematic way to determine accumulated quantities from known rates of change. One such application arises in ecology, where the total weight of a fish population in a body of water is referred to as its biomass. When the rate of growth of this biomass is known as a function of time, calculus can be used to determine the total biomass at a future date.Growth Rate and Biomass FunctionLet the growth rate of the fish population be represented by a...
9
Time-Series Graph
5.0K
A time-series graph is a line graph with repeated measurements taken at successive intervals of time. It is also called a time series chart. To construct a time-series graph, one must look at both pieces of a paired data set. The horizontal axis is used to plot the time increments, and the vertical axis is used to plot the values of the variable that one is measuring. By using the axes in this way, each point on the graph will correspond to time and a measured quantity. The points on the graph...
5.0K
Multi-input and Multi-variable systems
383
Cruise control systems in cars are designed as multi-input systems to maintain a driver's desired speed while compensating for external disturbances such as changes in terrain. The block diagram for a cruise control system typically includes two main inputs: the desired speed set by the driver and any external disturbances, such as the incline of the road. By adjusting the engine throttle, the system maintains the vehicle's speed as close to the desired value as possible.
In the absence of...
In the absence of...
383
Survival Tree
379
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
379
Microsoft Excel: Regression Analysis
1.5K
Regression analysis in Microsoft Excel is a powerful statistical method for examining the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It's used extensively in fields such as economics, biology, and business to predict outcomes, understand relationships, and make data-driven decisions. The most common type is linear regression, which attempts to fit a straight line through the data points to model the relationship between variables.
To perform regression...
To perform regression...
1.5K

