在金国家中严重牙周炎的负担和预测:从1990年到2040年的趋势
Li-Sha Luo1, Jiao Huang1, Hang-Hang Luan2
1Center for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, China.
International journal for equity in health
|November 1, 2025
概括
严重的牙周炎对全球健康构成重大挑战,特别是在金国家. 虽然老面临病例增加,但大多数其他国家预计将出现下降,需要有针对性的公共卫生干预.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生流行病学
- 口腔健康研究研究 口腔健康研究
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 严重的牙周炎是全球主要的健康问题,不成比例地影响低收入和中等收入国家.
- 金+国家面临着独特的人口和社会经济压力,但它们严重的牙周炎趋势未得到充分研究.
- 这项研究量化了金+国家严重牙周炎的负担,并预测了未来严重牙周炎的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析 1990年至2021年金国家中严重牙周炎的流行病学趋势.
- 预测2022年至2040年这些国家的严重牙周炎的未来负担.
- 确定针对性干预的区域差异和高风险人口.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担研究 (GBD 2021) 的数据.
- 通过使用估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 分析了残疾的历史发病率和寿命 (YLDs).
- 采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列 (BAPC) 模型进行未来预测,考虑年龄,时期和队列效应.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,金国家占全球严重牙周炎病例和YLD的62%以上.
- 观察到显著的区域差异,默科苏尔和SAARC显示了最高的年龄标准化负担.
- 老的发病率和年轻人死亡率有史以来最快的增长,预测显示持续增长,特别是在40-60岁年龄组.
结论:
- 严重牙周炎的趋势在金国家之间有所不同,老正面临着越来越严重的负担.
- 预计到2040年,大多数金国家将出现下降趋势.
- 有针对性的干预措施,包括加强牙科保健和中年人群的预防策略,至关重要.
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