潜伏延迟和环境感染对人口肺结核动态的影响
Hui Cao1, Xianyi Zhao1, Xingfu Zou2
1School of Mathematics & Data Science, Shaanxi University of Science & Technology, Xi'an Shaanxi, 710021, PR China.
Mathematical biosciences
|November 2, 2025
概括
延迟延迟和环境 结核菌感染影响结核病的传播. 数学模型显示,这些因素影响结核病的持续性,导致稳定的流行病或周期性振荡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 结核病 (TB) 仍然是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 环境传播和潜伏期是结核病流行病学的关键因素.
- 了解疾病动态需要强大的数学建模.
研究的目的:
- 调查潜伏延迟和环境中Mycobacterium结核病传播对结核病传播的影响.
- 开发和分析一个包含间接环境传播的延迟微分方程模型.
- 确定这些因素对疾病持续性和模式的流行病学影响.
主要方法:
- 对TB传播的延迟微分方程模型的推导.
- 对模型定位和基本复制数 (R0) 的分析.
- 研究平衡稳定性和霍夫分叉条件.
主要成果:
- 基本繁殖数 (R0) 决定了疾病的灭绝 (R0<1) 或持久性 (R0>1).
- 当R0>1时,存在一个独特的特有平衡,对于小的延迟延迟 (τ) 稳定.
- 霍夫分叉的条件表明可能出现周期性疾病振荡.
结论:
- 延迟延迟和环境中的Mycobacterium结核病感染显著影响结核病的动态.
- 这些因素可能导致持续的特有疾病或定期爆发.
- 数学建模为结核病的持续性和传播模式提供了关键的见解.
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