波浪风暴的动态和集群,以及它们对海侵蚀的影响
Salika Thilakarathne1, Hesamodin Enayatighadikolaei2, Md Shofiqul Islam3
1Institute of Coastal Systems - Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany.
Cambridge prisms. Coastal futures
|November 3, 2025
概括
海侵蚀受风暴动态和集群的影响,观察到季节性变化. 由于数据限制,机器学习模型在预测海岸线变化方面取得了有限的成功.
科学领域:
- 沿海的地形形态.
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 应用数学 应用数学 应用数学
背景情况:
- 海侵蚀是一个重要的沿海管理问题.
- 了解风暴动态及其对海岸线的影响至关重要.
- 机器学习为预测沿海变化提供了潜力.
研究的目的:
- 调查风暴动态和集群对日本哈萨基海岸海侵蚀的影响.
- 评估机器学习模型 (SVR和DNN) 在预测海岸线变化的有效性.
- 分析沿海形态和风暴演变的季节性影响.
主要方法:
- 对36年的水力动力学和形态学数据集的分析.
- 使用波浪高度值识别501个波浪风暴事件.
- 应用支持向量回归 (SVR) 和深度神经网络 (DNN) 模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 在测试数据集上,SVR和DNN模型的预测准确性有限 (R2分别为0.18和0.27).
- 观察到的数据显示,波浪风暴动态的季节性变化明显.
- 集群风暴事件表现出明显的侵蚀行为.
结论:
- 当前的机器学习模型可能无法在有限的数据和功能下对海岸线变化预测进行良好概括.
- 季节性模式和集群风暴事件显著影响海侵蚀.
- 需要进一步研究更全面的数据来提高ML模型的性能.
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