基于模拟的绝经模型:数字双胞胎视图中的荷尔蒙变化和心血管风险
1Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Foch Hospital, Suresnes, France.
Climacteric : the journal of the International Menopause Society
|November 3, 2025
概括
数字双胞胎模型模拟更年期的荷尔蒙变化和心血管风险. 该研究发现,更年期显著影响荷尔蒙和心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险,特别是在非更年期妇女中.
科学领域:
- 生殖内分泌学 生殖内分泌学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
- 心血管健康 心血管健康
背景情况:
- 更年期涉及显著的荷尔蒙变化,包括雌激素和孕激素的减少,以及卵泡刺激激素 (FSH) 和黄素化激素 (LH) 的增加.
- 这些荷尔蒙变化与心血管疾病 (CVD) 的风险增加有关.
- 数字双胞胎框架提供了一种新的计算方法来建模这些复杂的生理动态.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个模拟更年期相关荷尔蒙动态的半机械数字双胞胎模型.
- 用数字双胞胎模型评估更年期状态,荷尔蒙变化和心血管疾病风险之间的关联.
主要方法:
- 使用1000名55岁以上和55岁以下的模拟女性创建了一个数字双胞胎模型,在90天内跟踪.
- 荷尔蒙动态在非绝经妇女中循环建模,在绝经后妇女中稳定建模.
- 用统计模型评估心血管风险,根据年龄,BMI和吸烟状况进行调整.
主要成果:
- 该模型准确地复制了预期的荷尔蒙模式:非绝经妇女的周期性峰值和绝经后妇女的稳定低水平,具有升高的淋巴激素.
- 经过调整后,更年期与激素变化和心血管疾病风险增加 (p < 0.001) 有关.
- 在非更年期妇女中,心血管方面的差异更为明显,表现出减弱的雌激素峰值和质孕激素幅度.
结论:
- 这项概念验证研究表明了数字双胞胎模型的潜力,可以代表与更年期相关的荷尔蒙动态及其心血管影响.
- 未来的研究应纳入现实世界的数据,绝经前期的变化,和伦理方面的考虑,以加强临床应用.
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