碳定价如何影响电力部门的减排? 来自中国国家碳市场的证据
Yazhi Song1, Yin Li2, Kangkang Peng3
1Business School, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, P.R. China. songyazhi@jsnu.edu.cn.
Carbon balance and management
|November 3, 2025
概括
碳定价通过成本传递,显著推动了中国电力部门的减排. 市场流动性对于提高碳定价在去碳化努力中的有效性至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 电力部门的脱碳对气候目标至关重要.
- 碳定价机制是关键的政策工具.
- 了解碳定价对减排的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析碳定价对电力部门脱碳的杆效应.
- 调查碳定价影响的潜在机制.
- 为提高碳定价效率提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个具有滞后效应的动态减排需求模型.
- 综合收交叉映射 (CCM) 的因果关系分析.
- 每天使用的中国国家碳市场数据和企业级热能数据 (2022年1月至2024年1月).
主要成果:
- 碳价格通过成本传输 (弹性为1.78) 显示出显著的放大效应.
- 历史累积排放对交易量产生更强的因果影响 (0.63),而不是增量排放 (0.21).
- 市场流动性显著放大了减排需求,而不是折扣因子或转换效率.
结论:
- 碳市场有效地激励电力部门脱碳.
- 市场设计需要平衡流动性,风险和配额分配,以实现持续影响.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了可操作的见解,以改进碳定价机制.
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