2010年至2019年德国癌症的终身患病率:基于汇总数据的分析
Kira Baginski1, Dina Voeltz1, Claudia Hornberg2
1Biostatistics and Medical Biometry, Medical School OWL, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany.
PloS one
|November 3, 2025
概括
德国的癌症幸存者数量从2010年的251万显著增加到2019年的507万以上,突出显示了需要持续医疗监测的人口不断增长.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 癌症幸存者需要持续的医疗监测,因为复发和晚期影响的风险.
- 由于癌症检测和治疗的改进,癌症幸存者的数量正在增加.
- 德国癌症幸存者的流行病学数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 估计2010年至2019年德国癌症幸存者的终身患病率.
- 为德国癌症生存率提供最新的流行病学指标.
主要方法:
- 利用偏微分方程估计每年特定年龄和性别的终身癌症患病率.
- 采用了来自癌症登记数据中心 (ZfKD),出院医疗保健中央研究院 (Zi) 和德国联邦统计局的综合数据.
主要成果:
- 终身癌症患病率从2010年到2019年在所有年龄段增加至85岁,老年人患病率更高.
- 到2019年,男性患病率为49%,女性患病率为28%,年龄为85岁.
- 85岁以上的癌症幸存者总数从2010年的251万增加到2019年的507万以上.
结论:
- 在2010年至2019年期间,终身癌症患病率大幅增加.
- 在特定的时间范围内将癌症患者定义为"治愈",可能会低估未来的医疗需求.
- 越来越多的癌症幸存者需要仔细规划长期医疗保健资源分配.
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