超越点击的推理:解开条件推理中的反例和概率

Markus Knauff1, Lupita Estefania Gazzo Castañeda2

  • 1Experimental Psychology and Cognitive Science, University of Giessen, Otto-Behaghel-Str. 10F, 35394, Giessen, Germany. markus.knauff@psychol.uni-giessen.de.

Memory & cognition
|November 4, 2025
PubMed
概括

研究人员探索了人类的推理,使用开放式的反应,而不是传统的尺度. 研究结果显示,人们经常给出某些答案,在表达不确定性时偏好反例而不是概率,这种偏见被称为概率掩饰.

相关概念视频

Deductive Reasoning01:16

Deductive Reasoning

Deductive reasoning, or deduction, is the type of logic used in hypothesis-based science. In deductive reasoning, the pattern of thinking moves in the opposite direction as compared to inductive reasoning, which means that it uses a general principle or law to predict specific results. From those general principles, a scientist can deduce and predict the specific results that would be valid as long as the general principles are valid.
For example, a researcher can deduce specific predictions...
63.8K
Inductive Reasoning00:59

Inductive Reasoning

Inductive reasoning is a form of logical thinking that uses related observations to arrive at a general conclusion. It is uncertain and operates in degrees to which the conclusions are credible. As such, inductive arguments can be weak or strong, rather than valid or invalid, and conclusions can be used to formulate testable, falsifiable hypotheses.
Inductive reasoning is common in descriptive science. A life scientist makes observations and records them. This data can be qualitative or...
64.6K
Reasoning01:30

Reasoning

Reasoning is the action of thinking about something in a logical, sensible way. It is integral to problem-solving, decision-making, and critical thinking. Reasoning can be inductive or deductive. Reasoning involves transforming information into conclusions, which is essential for problem-solving, decision-making, and critical thinking.
Inductive reasoning involves deriving generalizations from specific observations. This type of reasoning helps form beliefs about the world. For example,...
390
Counterfactual Thinking01:19

Counterfactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking is a cognitive process wherein individuals mentally reconstruct alternative versions of past events, often beginning with “what if” or “if only.” This reflective mechanism plays a significant role in shaping emotional experiences and guiding future behavior. Though typically triggered by unfavorable or unexpected outcomes, counterfactual thinking can also emerge in mundane, everyday decisions and experiences, revealing its deep entrenchment in...
216
Probability in Statistics01:14

Probability in Statistics

Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring. The term event is defined as a collection of results of a procedure. An event is a simple event when an outcome cannot be divided into simpler parts.
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...
22.0K
Probability Laws01:49

Probability Laws

Overview
43.9K