使用竞争性风险模型,预测激素受体阳性局部晚期乳腺癌的老年患者的条件生存率
Jun Zhang1, Yunyun Zhao2, Wenhui Wang3
1Department of Breast Diseases, Weifang People's Hospital, Weifang, China.
Discover oncology
|November 4, 2025
概括
条件生存 (CS) 分析为老年乳腺癌患者提供了准确的预后. 新模型预测激素受体阳性局部晚期乳腺癌的存活率,有助于临床决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 老年医学 老年医学
背景情况:
- 条件生存 (CS) 分析为癌症幸存者提供了动态的预后见解.
- 准确的预后对于老年癌症患者的长期管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为患有激素受体阳性局部晚期乳腺癌 (HR+LABC) 的老年患者开发一种条件生存 (CS) 预后模型.
- 评估长期存活率随着时间的推移而发生的变化,使用该人群的CS分析.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自SEER数据库 (2010-2021) 的HR+LABC 8,450名老年患者 (65岁以上) 的数据.
- 使用条件生存分析和多变量考克斯回归来确定乳腺癌特异性死亡率 (BCSM) 和整体死亡率 (OM) 的预后因素.
- 使用培训 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 数据集开发和验证预后模型.
主要成果:
- 根据CS分析,总体和乳腺癌特定死亡率随着时间的推移而有所改善.
- 确定了BCSM (年龄,T阶段,N阶段,等级,HR状态,化疗,放射治疗) 和OM (包括婚姻状况,种族,手术) 的关键预后因素.
- 在培训和验证组中,CS模型显示预测和观察结果之间具有很强的一致性 (AUC > 0.73).
结论:
- 为老年HR+LABC患者开发了个性化的CS预测模型.
- 这些模型可以帮助患者咨询,临床决策和医疗保健资源分配.
- 由于缺少变量和缺乏前性验证等局限性,临床应用需要进一步的外部验证和改进.
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