传染动态传染病模型的校准:一个范围审查和报告框架
Emmanuelle A Dankwa1, Léa Cavalli2, Ruchita Balasubramanian2
1Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
传染病模型中的校准报告不一致. 一个新的框架 (PIPO) 可以通过标准化校准记录的方式来提高传输动态模型的可重复性和可信性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 计算生物学和生物信息学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 传染动态模型对于传染病流行病学至关重要.
- 模型校准,将输出与数据对齐,至关重要,但缺乏标准化.
- 不一致的报告导致推断错误和减少可重现性.
研究的目的:
- 制定一个标准化的框架,用于报告传染病模型中的校准实践.
- 评估当前的校准方法和报告的全面性.
- 提高模拟分析的可信性和可重复性.
主要方法:
- 开发了目的-输入-过程-输出 (PIPO) 框架.
- 对结核病,艾滋病毒和疟疾 (2018-2024) 的传播动态模型进行了范围审查.
- 使用PIPO框架评估校准方法,目的和报告完整性.
主要成果:
- 审查了419个模型;74%是区间型的,20%是基于个体的 (IBM).
- 校准主要针对未知/模两可的参数 (40%) 或科学相关性 (20%).
- 报告的全面性很低;所有PIPO项目报告的仅为4%,代码为20%.
结论:
- 传染病模型校准报告是高度可变的.
- 该PIPO框架提供了一种标准化的方法来改善报告.
- 标准化报告提高了传染病模型的可复制性和可信度.
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