以人为中心的防灾能力:揭示气候变化中的社会不平等
Bingsheng Liu1, Ran Wei1, Jingyuan Tang2
1School of Public Policy and Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
概括
未来的气候变化加剧了灾难的脆弱性,增加了社区抵御力的社会不平等. 我们以人为中心的框架揭示了日益扩大的社会空间差距,不成比例地影响弱势群体.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 社区抗灾能力对于面临气候变化影响的弱势群体至关重要.
- 跨越各种因素的抗灾能力方面的社会不平等仍然未得到充分探索.
- 现有的研究缺乏对性社会差异的系统分析.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个以人为中心的框架,用于调查社区抗灾能力中的社会不平等.
- 分析不同气候场景下与人类福祉相关的弹性方面的社会不平等.
- 用已确定的统计方法量化各个子群体之间的弹性差异.
主要方法:
- 结合洪水危险地图 (历史和未来的SSP场景) 与多层城市空间网络模型.
- 通过分析道路,社区和基本服务网络,评估居民在洪水事件期间的服务弹性.
- 用吉尼系数和洛伦兹曲线对不同亚群体进行量化弹性不平等.
主要成果:
- 未来的气候条件显著增加了受影响的社区和他们的脆弱性.
- 由于"岛屿效应",观察到社区恢复力的空间两极分化,造成资源差异.
- 恢复力方面的社会不平等是空间和规模特定的,在当地各个社会人口群体之间存在很大差异.
结论:
- 扩大抗灾能力的社会空间差异化可能会导致不满,并阻碍集体灾害响应.
- 未来的气候变化,人类福祉和社会公平必须纳入灾害政策.
- 包容性应对灾害需要解决不同人口的具体需求和脆弱性.
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