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谷物为绿色减轻了气候驱动的农业非点源气损失增加和N2O排放

Ruimin Liu¹, Yue Liu¹, Qian Li¹

¹State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, 100875, China.

The Science of the total environment

|November 4, 2025

概括

通过减少耕地,农业的损失,主要来自非点源和氧化排放,显著减少. 未来的气候变化和土地利用政策,如谷物换绿计划,将影响这些损失.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
农业科学农业科学
气候科学气候科学

背景情况:

的损失是循环的关键组成部分.
农业非点源 (ANPS) 和氧化 (N₂O) 排放是农业气损失的主要途径.
对耕地过度施加化肥是气损失的主要驱动因素.

研究的目的:

通过将ANPS和N₂O排放模型结合起来,构建一个水shed中农业气损失的模拟框架.
在不同的未来情景下分析气损失途径和影响因素.
评估土地利用变化和气候变化对农业气损失的影响.

主要方法:

用于ANPS建模的土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 与用于N2O排放建模的空间参考非线性模型 (SRNM) 的结合.
在各种未来情景下模拟农业气损失,包括气候变化 (RCP情景) 和土地利用政策 (谷物换绿色计划).
分析ANPS和N₂O排放对总损失的贡献,并评估农田面积减少的影响.

主要成果:

证实ANPS和N₂O排放是农业气损失的主要途径.
从2020年到2070年,农业气损失减少了约49.31%,但N2O排放的比例增加了.
农田面积减少1%导致气损失减少0.64%,而谷物换绿计划减少了14%的总气损失.

结论:

过度使用化肥是农业气损失的主要原因.
未来的气候变化,特别是降雨和温度的增加,可能会增加气损失,加剧的降雨会促进ANPS损失和高温加剧N2O排放.
谷物换绿计划可以减轻气候变化导致的农业气损失预计增加.

关键词:

农业非点源 (ANPS) 农业非点源气候和土地使用变化.由于的损失导致了的损失.氧化 (N(2) O) 是一种氧化.这就是SWAT-DynamicParam模型.

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