抽样策略如何塑造基于经验的风险选择
Linus Hof1, Veronika Zilker2, Thorsten Pachur3
1TUM School of Management, Technical University of Munich, Germany.
Cognitive psychology
|November 4, 2025
概括
信息搜索策略,如在选项之间切换,显著影响有风险的选择. 了解这些搜索过程为决策提供了超越传统心理经济模型的新见解.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 计算神经科学是一种神经科学.
背景情况:
- 风险选择现象,如风险厌恶,通常使用心理经济曲线建模.
- 这些模型描述了选择,但没有描述底层的认知过程.
- 在决策过程中搜索信息是一个至关重要的,但往往被忽视的因素.
研究的目的:
- 研究信息搜索策略,特别是切换和停止规则如何塑造基于经验的风险选择.
- 开发一个计算框架,用于分析决策中的采样策略.
- 将搜索流程与风险决策中观察到的模式联系起来.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个具有三个组成部分的计算框架:搜索规则 (切换),比较规则 (圆向与摘要) 和停止规则.
- 进行模拟分析,比较这些采样策略组件的各种组合.
- 进行实证分析来评估人类的决策策略.
主要成果:
- 频繁切换可以增加或减少预期值 (EV) -最大化选择,这取决于所使用的比较规则.
- 切换行为会影响罕见事件和风险态度的明显加权.
- 经验数据表明,人类采用促进EV最大化选择的策略.
结论:
- 信息搜索过程,包括切换和停止规则,在产生风险选择模式方面发挥着重要作用.
- 搜索策略的计算建模为决策提供了一个新的视角.
- 未来的研究应该进一步探索信息搜索和风险决策之间的相互作用.
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