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Updated: Jan 12, 2026

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Surrogate Model Development for Digital Experiments in Welding
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模拟工业链中的供应风险传播:一个具有层间信息的多层网络框架
Qianqian Xu1, Pengli An2, Tong Jiang1
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Journal of environmental management
|November 4, 2025
概括
使用多层网络模型分析全球供应链风险. 中国发挥着普遍作用,而澳大利亚可以通过跨层破坏引发更广泛的影响,强调需要有针对性的缓解策略.
科学领域:
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 网络科学 网络科学
背景情况:
- 由于其独特的特性,在航空航天和国防方面至关重要.
- 全球需求增长和产业集中造成了供应链的脆弱性.
- 了解供应冲击带来的风险传播对于经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 构建产业链的多层网络模型.
- 模拟和分析来自供应冲击的风险传播模式.
- 确定关键国家及其在系统性风险传播中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用2022年全球贸易数据开发一个产业链多层网络 (TICMN).
- 结合PageRank (CPR) 算法与级联失败模型的集成.
- 从已识别的关键风险源中模拟风险传播.
主要成果:
- 各国的中心性在各个行业链层和反优势之间有很大差异.
- 层间风险传播对冲击强度比层内传播更敏感.
- 中国表现出"全链透"的作用;澳大利亚是跨层影响的关键驱动力.
结论:
- 一个国家的系统性风险潜力取决于其在产业链中的中心地位和功能作用.
- 需要有针对性的缓解策略来解决全球供应链中的漏洞.
- 政策制定者可以利用这些发现来加强资源安全和经济性.
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