在碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 项目中确定关键风险因素
Yinghua Xu1, Bingsheng Liu1, Yuan Chen1
1College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
概括
在碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 项目中确定关键风险因素至关重要. 不充分的安全系统和培训是风险传播的关键驱动因素,而干预措施可以减轻这些风险.
科学领域:
- 工业安全 工业安全 工业安全
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 化学工程是化学工程的重要组成部分.
背景情况:
- 碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 项目面临着复杂的风险.
- 现有的研究往往忽略了风险因素相互作用.
- 为了有效的安全管理,需要全面了解风险传播.
研究的目的:
- 在CCS项目中识别关键风险因素及其相互作用.
- 分析这些因素对风险传播动态的影响.
- 为提高CCS安全管理提供可操作的见解.
主要方法:
- 文献审查,事故报告分析和专家采访,以确定36个风险因素和6个常见事故.
- 建立一个CCS风险因素相互作用网络.
- 拓分析以确定关键节点.
- 基于SIR模型的模拟以分析风险传播.
主要成果:
- 不完整的安全系统,不充分的监督和培训被确定为风险传播的关键驱动节点.
- 设备过载,恶劣天气和不当的应急处理被确定为可以抑制传播的关键桥梁节点.
- 风险干预,传播率和恢复率显著影响风险扩散的规模和持续时间.
结论:
- 在关键的驾驶和桥梁节点进行有针对性的干预可以提高CCS项目的弹性.
- 了解网络拓和动态参数对于主动安全管理至关重要.
- 这项研究为CCS风险分析和缓解策略提供了一种新的方法.
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